Common senseversusnonsense
6'5", gay, Republican and Texan. I read the filings, pull the data and tell you what the headlines left out.
2026 early vote tracker
Who has already voted in the midterm, by the party they're registered with, state by state. Pulled from official state files every morning and checked against the University of Florida Election Lab.
Party-registration states, latest pull
- Ballots with a party on record1,838,270
- All early ballots, every reporting state3,765,784
- Democratic marginD +25.7
- Change since the previous pull0.1 pts toward Republicans
This counts who returned a ballot, by registration. It doesn't tell you how anyone voted. Early vote leans Democratic every cycle because mail voting does; the tracker compares it to the 2022 finish line.
See every stateWhy I built it
Every election night somebody screams fraud and somebody else screams landslide, and neither one checked the numbers. These are the state's own counts, updated daily, so you can watch the trend instead of the spin.
What to watch
Whether the Democratic edge in early ballots is bigger or smaller than it was at the end of 2022. In-person early voting is where Republicans close the gap, and more states open it every day through November 3.
Where the numbers come from
State election offices via the Election Data Guy tracker, cross-checked with Dr. Michael McDonald's UF Election Lab. The 2022 baseline is from the US Elections Project.
How I look at things
- Realityoverideology
- Dataovernarratives
- Responsibilityovervictimhood
- Perspectiveoveroutrage
No fluff and no fabricated facts. If I can't show you the receipt, it doesn't go on camera. I call out the left and the right, and when I get something wrong I correct it out loud.
What I cover
The research you don't have time to do, explained like an adult. Be serious.
The digital detective
Timelines that don't add up, websites that quietly change, statements that get scrubbed. I screenshot first and ask questions later.
Kitchen-table politics
What a foreign policy move or a new bill actually does to your gas price, your grocery bill and your neighborhood.
Headlines versus reality
I read the source document behind the story and show you where the coverage and the facts part ways.
A gay conservative's take
Life for gay Americans compared to the rest of the world, and why victim framing doesn't fit most of us.
Follow along
Same handle everywhere: @commonsensegay.
Log Cabin Republicans of DallasA Republican home for gay conservatives and our allies in Dallas, and a seat at the table.
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